India’s Uncertain Demographic Dividend

Jayan Jose Thomas, PhD, Associate Professor of Economics, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi and Member, Planning Board, State Government of Kerala

A version of this article was originally published in Chinese as ‘印度不确定的人口红利’ [Yindu bu queding de renkou hongli], Diyi Caijing, 10 July 2017. This is part of a series by Indian scholars in China’s top business affairs news portal facilitated by the ICS. The English version follows below the Chinese text.

普遍的观点认为,印度将受益于所谓的“人口红利”。据世界银行估计,2010年至2030年间,印度15岁至59岁人口将增加至2亿多人。与此同时,包括中国在内的世界大部分发达地区的适龄劳动人口预计将会下降。也就是说,未来几年,印度会为全球劳动力供给的大幅增长贡献力量。

然而,实现人口红利对印度来说并不容易。首先,获得诺贝尔经济学奖的阿马蒂亚·森(Amartya Sen)指出,在卫生和教育领域,印度面临严峻挑战。2010年,印度的婴儿死亡率是每千名47例,而在中国,这个比例已减少到每千名13例。

对印度政策制定者来说的另一个重大挑战,是为新进入劳动力市场的印度人创造就业机会。事实上,大部分年轻劳动力的增长将来自印度最贫穷的地区,主要包括北方邦和比哈尔邦在内的北部和东部地区。 Continue reading “India’s Uncertain Demographic Dividend”

Demography in Japan

Ambassador (retd.) Kishan S RanaHonorary Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies.

The word ‘Japanification’ has come to mean a sharp decline in the population and workforce, as a result from a huge secular decline in the birthrate, to a point where it leads to a contraction of the economy, and a huge threat of a burgeoning number of old age dependents, which alters the very structure of life. In 2005, its ‘total fertility rate’ (TFR), i.e. the number of children per woman) fell to 1.26; it has risen slightly since then, but experts estimate this as a change in the timing of birth, and not a long-term change.

Continue reading “Demography in Japan”