A Renewed push by Japan and Russia to resolve their bilateral dispute: Assessing the challenges

Dr. Shamshad A. Khan, Visiting Associate Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies, Delhi

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has given utmost priority to sign a peace treaty with Russia as well as gaining back the control of the Northern Islands (known as Kuril in Russia). There have been 24 rounds of one on one interaction between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the most recent was held on the sidelines of the G-20 Summit in Buenos Aires. During Abe-Putin meetings, signing a peace treaty and resolution of the territorial dispute, an issue lingering between the two countries ever since the end of World War II, has been on the agenda. Following their talks, they set up a consultative framework, termed as a “new framework” which is expected to speed up talks to resolve the issue as also consolidate bilateral ties.

The Japanese media reports suggest that Abe may settle for two islands instead of seeking the return of all four. If that be so, it could be interpreted as a departure from Japan’s long held stance which states that Peace Treaty with Russia will be signed “contingent on the resolution of the Northern Territories issues.”

India Becoming a Threat in Chinese Imagination

Hemant Adlakha, professor of Chinese at Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi and Honorary Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies (ICS), Delhi.

As the new year gets underway, and Chinese foreign policy analysts join their counterparts around the world in assessing the events of 2017, the emerging international relations (IR) discourse in Beijing is quite a revelation — at least to the Japanese and Indian strategic affairs community.

While most Chinese believe Japan to be the second biggest threat to China’s “peaceful rise,” according to a few Chinese experts, the rising global profile of India, especially under the “right-wing” nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has gone unacknowledged.

Competing for Influence: China’s Strategic Constraints and Challenges in the Indian Ocean

Chetananand Patil, Research Intern, ICS

The Indian Ocean is increasingly becoming a platform for the new emerging competition between major powers with China making its forays into the region, India seeking to preserve its dominance and the US keen to contain rise of China. Conventional wisdom perceives Chinese presence as a threat for the region and especially for India as it challenges Indian supremacy in its own backyard. Although China’s increasing presence cannot be overlooked or seen in idealist terms, there are certain limitations to its expansion which places Beijing in a strategically disadvantaged position vis-à-vis India.

The most important aspect that needs to be taken into account regarding China and the Indian Ocean Region is that China has no maritime territorial claims in the IOR and the region is not its strategic backyard. For Beijing, to protect maritime sovereignty in the South China Sea is the first priority

Demography in Japan

Ambassador (retd.) Kishan S Rana, Honorary Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies.

The word ‘Japanification’ has come to mean a sharp decline in the population and workforce, as a result from a huge secular decline in the birthrate, to a point where it leads to a contraction of the economy, and a huge threat of a burgeoning number of old age dependents, which alters the very structure of life. In 2005, its ‘total fertility rate’ (TFR), i.e. the number of children per woman) fell to 1.26; it has risen slightly since then, but experts estimate this as a change in the timing of birth, and not a long-term change.

Analyzing the Establishment of and Responses to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank

Madhura Balasubramaniam, Integrated Masters in Development Studies, IIT Madras.

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) is a multilateral initiative announced by the Chinese President Xi Jinping to enable ‘economic integration in Asia’ and ‘cooperate with existing multilateral development banks’.[1] The startup capital of US$50 billion dollars was increased to US$100 billion. Beijing is the headquarters of the Bank and is headed by Jin Liqun, a former Vice President of the ADB.^[2] The formal opening ceremony of the Bank was held on 16 January 2016.

North Korea’s Nuclear Test: Regional Reactions and the Chinese Responsibility

Jabin T. Jacob, Assistant Director and Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies.

Following North Korea’s fourth nuclear test since 2006, [1] the world led by the UN Security Council has condemned Pyongyang’s action.[2] The DPRK for its part blamed South Korea’s propaganda broadcasts in the Demilitarised Zone – which includes K-pop songs, by the way – and deployment of military assets, saying these were pushing the two countries to the ‘brink of war’.[3]